Georgia Tech’s upset of Florida State in Week 0 has Yellow Jackets fans pumped. SMU, meanwhile, rallied to stave off embarrassment in Nevada. Now, we’ll get to see what the rest of the league looks like.
You’ve got questions. We’ve got a mailbag.
Does FSU losing to Georgia Tech prove once and for all that relying so heavily on the portal is not the key to building a lasting program? — Tom S.
Tom, I think it’s still too early to determine whether or not the transfer portal is a viable source to sustain a program. We probably need a 10-year window to judge it fairly. But I think no one has proved you can win a national championship by making the portal your primary resource. Michigan had transfers but was mostly the product of recruiting and development. Georgia’s teams were mostly homegrown. But are we defining championship programs or “lasting programs”?
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If we’re going to say a lasting program, I’m assuming that means a Playoff contender. Louisville built its team last season via the portal and reached the ACC Championship Game. If FSU and Louisville play in a handful of the next 10 league championship games and make a couple of Playoff appearances with portal-heavy teams, does that make them lasting programs? What if Clemson makes the same number of Playoff appearances over that span without taking transfers?
Ultimately, the portal is just a new way to supplement your roster. It’s on the coaches to build however they see fit. They will get judged on the results. — Manny Navarro
Haven’t heard much about former four-star QB Maalik Murphy at Duke. He’s now the starter. The Blue Devils were not picked by many to win much this year, but curious about your thoughts on his ability to help the Devils stabilize and win 6-7 games this year. — Todd L.
I don’t know if “stabilize” is the right word, Todd, but I get what you mean. Because while, yes, Mike Elko and Riley Leonard are gone, consider this: Duke won eight games last season despite Leonard being banged up (and not playing after Halloween) and even won its bowl game — despite losing the turnover and penalty battle — without either of them. Elko certainly helped breed Duke’s current defensive culture — the Blue Devils tied with Alabama for 16th nationally in scoring defense last season — but hiring defensive guru Manny Diaz was an intentional move to maintain that tenacity. I’m not arguing that a program with a new head coach and quarterback is as “stable” as others with those pieces already in place, but the infrastructure both entered into is pretty solid.
I say all of that because it’s not like Murphy has to do everything himself. But for the Blue Devils to make a bowl game in Diaz’s first season, yeah, Duke’s highest-rated quarterback prospect of the rankings era is going to have to play up to his potential. Murphy has a cannon of an arm and starting experience on a College Football Playoff team, so the moment shouldn’t be too big for him. My question is how much he can elevate the talent around him compared to last season at Texas, when he was throwing to four pass catchers currently in the NFL and handing it off to the first running back drafted in April.
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Receiver Jordan Moore is a nice piece, but, uh … Duke doesn’t have nearly Texas’ level of skill-position talent. All of which is a long way of saying, Murphy should be good but not without his hiccups. If he plays at or near the level he did in two starts last season, combined with Duke’s expected defensive fortitude, there’s a pathway to six wins, even with a daunting late-year schedule. — Brendan Marks
As a Georgia Tech fan, how do I handle my anxiety about being able to keep Brent Key if the Jackets continue to improve? Am I crazy to think GT could beat UGA once in the next four years? — George L.
My thoughts are with ya, George. College football might be the only sport in the world that spikes all of our anxieties in Week 0. But I hope you got to enjoy last week!
If the Yellow Jackets continue to improve and start competing for ACC championships again, then, yes, Key will likely be a hot commodity on the coaching carousel. He’s a strong recruiter in one of the most fertile areas in the country (hello, Josh Petty), and athletic directors in the SEC will like that he has ties to the league, having coached Alabama’s offensive line from 2016-18.
The television money that schools in the SEC and Big Ten are getting relative to their counterparts in the ACC would also be a huge selling point. But I don’t get the sense that Key is someone always looking for the next best thing — a rarity in his industry. UCF was the first FBS program to make him an assistant coach, in 2006, and he stayed with the Knights for eight seasons before he left for Alabama. He left Alabama to come home to Georgia Tech.
That’s the other part of all of this: Georgia Tech is home for Key, who was a four-year starter at offensive guard for the Yellow Jackets from 1997-2000. He loves his alma mater, loves Atlanta and knows firsthand what the Georgia Tech experience can do for players.
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As for the Yellow Jackets beating the Bulldogs in the next four years? I truly don’t know. Georgia is still the gold standard of college football, and Georgia Tech hasn’t defeated the Bulldogs since 2016. But the Yellow Jackets gave Kirby Smart and company all they could handle last year in a game Georgia won by just eight points. And if there’s one coach who can take the next step, it’s Key. — Grace Raynor
🎥 The Heart of the Jackets#StingEm 🐝 pic.twitter.com/TPjF1OGeAS
— Georgia Tech Football (@GeorgiaTechFB) August 25, 2024
What are some key games that ACC teams need to win to start to change the narrative of the ACC as a second-tier Power 4 conference? — Tyler C.
Singling out games will not change the overall league narrative (just individual team cases). We’re in an era now in the 12-team Playoff where every out-of-conference game your league plays will affect the narrative.
The bottom line is this: The ACC has to play better against the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC if it wants to make a case for more at-large bids in the 12-team field. Last year, the ACC went 7-5 against the SEC — the first time since 2016 that the ACC won the head-to-head series. The ACC also hasn’t won a season series with the Big Ten since 2016 (they split last year, 4-4).
If you compare the head-to-head league records of the Power 4 conferences over the past eight years (and I did), the ACC has an 11-13 record against the Big 12, a 20-28 record against the Big Ten and a 37-48 record against the SEC. The Big 12, meanwhile, has a 19-18 record against the SEC and an 8-14 record against the Big Ten. The SEC is 21-14 against the Big Ten.
You can bet conference commissioners are going to use these kinds of numbers to make arguments for why their leagues deserve more spots in the Playoff. — Navarro
What’s more likely: Georgia Tech doing damage in the ACC and winning nine games or FSU ending the season out of the top 25? — Michael J.
This time a week ago, I predicted FSU would win the conference and march into the Playoff after being left out last year. Now? I’m riding with the Yellow Jackets. I can see a path where they win nine games and FSU falls out of the rankings.
I know we need to be careful not to overreact to Week 0. (And who knows, maybe FSU will prove me wrong.) But what we saw in Ireland showed us that Georgia Tech has a lot more pieces than we thought and FSU has a lot more questions than we thought.
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The Seminoles’ inability to run the ball was jarring — they rushed for 58 yards on the first drive and just 40 the rest of the way. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei looked solid but far from elite, completing just 2 of 5 passes thrown 15 yards downfield. And the FSU defense? The Seminoles were supposed to have one of the best D-lines in the conference, but Georgia Tech controlled the line of scrimmage for much of the game and rushed for 190 yards.
On the flip side, I’ve got more faith in the Yellow Jackets than I did a week ago — and I’ve liked Haynes King all offseason. Their schedule is intense, featuring matchups with Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami and NC State, but I’m inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt if they can consistently play like they did in Week 0. — Raynor
How much has the scheduling deal with Notre Dame hurt how people view the ACC? “Clemson being way down” and “the ACC is bad” were two very common narratives last season that have carried over. But Clemson wasn’t losing games to teams from other conferences (last year). People lauded Ohio State’s win at Notre Dame but then turned their noses at two ACC schools beating them. — Nicholas F.
Nicholas, I think we need to start by acknowledging the elephant in the room. TV networks and media entities have a vested interest in formulating whatever narrative suits them and the leagues whose broadcast rights/coverage they pay for. This is, after all, an entertainment product first and foremost, and the more eyeballs they draw, the more money they make.
Secondly, more people watch Notre Dame than any team in the ACC. It’s a relationship the ACC needs more than Notre Dame does. The Fighting Irish could easily switch allegiances to the Big Ten or SEC and fare far better in terms of eyeballs. When Ohio State beat Notre Dame last September, both teams were ranked in the top 10, and 10 million people were watching. It was the ninth-highest-rated broadcast in college football last season.
When Louisville beat Notre Dame two weeks later, the Irish were ranked 14th and the Cardinals were ranked 19th, and it drew half the viewership of the Ohio State-ND game. When Notre Dame lost to Clemson in November, the Tigers were 4-4 and unranked, and the Irish already had two losses. The Clemson-Notre Dame was the sixth-highest-rated game that week, with 3.24 million viewers. — Navarro
Who are the two teams not named FSU and Clemson that will make the ACC championship game, and what are the key games and their results for this to play out during the year? — Isaiah N.
Miami and NC State. The Hurricanes signed one of the most sought-after quarterbacks in the transfer portal in Cam Ward and have the talent, thanks to Mario Cristobal’s recruiting, to compete with anyone in the country. But they must stay out of their own way (and take a knee!). Their first ACC game is also one of their biggest when Virginia Tech comes to town on Sept. 27. Louisville on Oct. 19 and Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 — both on the road — will also be critical matchups. They play Florida State at home on Oct. 26, but I’m not sure I’m as concerned about that game for Cristobal and his staff as I was a week ago.
NC State’s biggest test will be at Clemson on Sept. 21. The Wolfpack have already gotten over the Dabo Swinney hump and knocked off the Tigers in two of the last three meetings after losing eight consecutive from 2012-19. Grayson McCall is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the ACC, and I expect NC State’s defense to again give Clemson’s offense problems. If the Wolfpack can beat Clemson and then Georgia Tech on Nov. 21, they should be in business — assuming they take care of the games they’re expected to win. — Raynor
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North Carolina’s late-season collapses and poor performances in its bowl games have been well documented. But the question is — why? With QBs like Sam Howell and Drake Maye, it should have never happened. Your thoughts on what has gone wrong and how much of a factor the coaching was? — John D.
Unfortunately, John, Sam Howell and Drake Maye don’t play defense, which has been UNC’s Achilles’ heel for … basically a decade now. Case in point: The Tar Heels finished 94th in total defense last season, 115th the year before (Maye’s first as a starter) and 94th in Howell’s final season in Chapel Hill. As good as UNC’s offense has been during that stretch, playing in shootouts every week isn’t the most sustainable formula for success. Plus, the offensive line hasn’t exactly been anything to write home about; Howell had a tendency to hold the ball too long, but his protection rarely held up. Put two and two together, and you wind up — at least in some fans’ eyes — “wasting” the two best passers the school has ever had.
The idea of blaming something on “coaching” has always been hilarious to me because everything should fall under coaching. It isn’t a factor; it’s the factor in everything that happens in a program. It’s never all on the players; it’s on the coaches preparing them (or not), helping them understand what they need to do (or not), and even hiring the right coaches in the first place (or not). In that sense, give Mack Brown some credit for hiring former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins as defensive coordinator this offseason. Collins has been a stud DC everywhere he’s been, and Brown recognized he needed a change. We’ll see what the results yield, but it was a necessary move.
The last thing I’d mention here, especially as it relates to the late-season collapses, is getting high on your own supply. Brown has returned UNC football to respectability, but I do think it’s fair to criticize how his teams have handled praise. Last season, it was the “poison cheese” before the Virginia game. The year before, not taking Georgia Tech seriously enough on the road. That’s also coaching and something Brown has to learn from if he gets the Tar Heels back to the heights of the last few seasons. — Marks
(Photo of Brent Key: Tom Maher / INPHO via USA Today)
